Forecasting the Impact of Tariffs on Canadian Fleets

The North American automotive industry is one of the most highly integrated supply chains in the world, making it particularly sensitive to supply and production disruptions. As the U.S. administration continues to implement its rapidly evolving trade policy, the entire industry – especially the commercial fleet sector – will be significantly impacted by wide-ranging tariffs and shifting economic trends. The broader impact will extend far beyond the automotive industry, fueling uncertainty across most sectors of the Canadian economy as well.

These policy changes will affect fleet planning and investment decisions for the foreseeable future. To help fleet operators prepare and adjust accordingly, Holman’s team of consulting analysts is offering an overview of the current trade and supply chain environment, while explaining how tariffs will influence commercial fleet operations in Canada and throughout North America.

The Latest Developments

As of April 2025, the United States has implemented a 25% tariff on a number of goods imported from Canada (as well as 25% on Mexican goods and 104% on Chinese goods) including vehicles, parts, and raw materials (specifically, steel and aluminum). Additionally, energy exports (electricity, crude oil, and gasoline) from Canada to the U.S. are subject to a 10% tariff. In response to these U.S. tariffs, on April 3, Canada announced a reciprocal 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the U.S.

However, all vehicles that comply with USMCA production rules, which covers the majority of imports from these countries, are currently exempt from the 25% tariff.

For Canada, these tariffs present a number of challenges, further complicating trade relations with the U.S. and adding to significant economic uncertainty. Further, the Prime Minister’s office has stated they are prepared to take action to defend against further U.S. tariffs.

New Vehicle Pricing

The vast majority of automakers rely on global supply chains for cost efficiency. Tariffs on imported vehicles and automotive parts could disrupt these well-established supply lines. As a result of these tariffs, automakers will face higher costs which are likely to be passed on to the consumer and corporate fleet customers.

Canada’s automotive industry relies heavily on exports to the United States, with approximately 93% of domestically produced vehicles shipped south in 2023. This figure has grown in recent years, up from around 80% in 2015. As dependence on the U.S. market increases, the Canadian auto industry and broader economy has become increasingly vulnerable to potential tariffs on exports.

A recent analysis of the impact of these combined tariffs forecasts price increases ranging from $5,000 to $15,000 depending on the model, with the top end of the range impacting commercial trucks which are heavily used by Canadian fleets.

Secondary Market Outlook

While tariffs will have a direct impact on the cost of new vehicles, used vehicle prices are also expected to climb as a result. With many buyers likely to face affordability challenges in the new vehicle market, some will pivot to used vehicles instead. As a result, used vehicle prices on the secondary market are expected to increase by 3%.

Potential For Supply Chain Disruptions

The introduction of tariffs will also likely disrupt the seamless flow of goods and raw materials across the industry’s well established supply lines. If, or when, manufacturers and suppliers begin to seek alternative supply routes or sources to mitigate the financial impact of these tariffs, there is the potential for production delays as well as increased operational expenses.

Increasing costs are also poised to directly impact consumer sentiment and spending. As a result, there will likely be a decrease in demand for new vehicles and manufacturers may opt to reduce overall production, particularly on models heavily impacted by tariffs. From a fleet operator’s perspective, this could lead to certain models having limited availability and/or lengthy production delays.

Additional Impact – Upfit Components and Parts

The upfit sector will likely experience a more pronounced impact from the new steel and aluminum tariffs. Manufacturing a typical truck body requires 1,500 pounds of steel on average. Tariffs are poised to increase raw material costs by an estimated $300 for each truck body. However, the exact increase may vary significantly depending on the specific size and composition of the truck body. Other popular upfit components – racks, shelves, partitions, etc. – will be impacted as well but likely on a smaller scale, given the amount of raw materials used in these items.

The impact of tariffs will be felt across the parts market as well. While the cost increases are expected to be marginal for the typical consumer, they will have a more pronounced impact on commercial fleet operators, affecting a variety of maintenance and repair costs. Projecting the specific impact on imported parts is difficult given the supply chain. However, fleet operators should anticipate an increase of 5% to 10% in the near term. If fleet operators extend the lifecycle of existing vehicles as a result of increased new vehicle pricing or supply interruptions, maintenance costs on the existing, older vehicles will likely rise, as was seen during the pandemic.

Holman is Ready to Help

Current economic conditions and tariffs remain extremely volatile, and Holman is monitoring the situation closely. We continue to collaborate with our partners across the automotive industry to stay ahead of potential shifts in pricing and supply chain performance to ensure our account management and consulting teams are ready to help our customers effectively navigate these rapidly evolving macroeconomic and industry specific trends.

Additionally, Holman is actively developing strategies to help our customers adjust accordingly and minimize the impact on their business. To have the latest industry news and fleet insights delivered straight to your inbox, be sure to subscribe to Holman’s Morning Brake newsletter.